For optimists, disappointment may eventually dominate the anticipatory feelings of expecting the best, so happiness starts to fall. Firstly, our results could be the result of counteracting emotions. Instead, we see that being realistic about your future and making sound decisions based on evidence can bring a sense of wellbeing, without having to immerse yourself in relentless positivity.Īs to why these results arise, two mutually inclusive possibilities come to mind. The research may well come as a relief to many people, as it shows you don’t have to spend your days striving to think positively. Other things being equal, overestimating outcomes and underestimating them are both associated with lower wellbeing than getting expectations about right. Our main finding is that it is not just outcomes that matter but also expectations. Better finances are associated with higher wellbeing, so no surprise there. Alongside this, we measured particpants’ finances and their tendency to have over or under estimated them. Wellbeing was measured by self-reported life satisfaction and psychological distress. Which way wellbeing? Shutterstock/Notto Yeez To do this, we tracked 1,601 people over 18 years. In our research, we investigated whether it is optimists, pessimists or realists that have the highest long term wellbeing. Particularly prone to harmful error of this sort are career choices, saving decisions and any choice involving risk and uncertainty. Optimism and pessimism are therefore judgemental biases that make for poor decisions, leading to worse outcomes and lower wellbeing. The point is that to make good decisions, accurate, unbiased information is required. These behavioural views of the merits of an optimistic or pessimistic mindset contrast with the perspective of mainstream economics according to which it is best to have realistic beliefs. Unrealistic optimists, by expecting a lot, are setting themselves up for large doses of destructive disappointment. Getting a pay raise of £5,000 may seem like a loss if you were expecting £10,000. In most cases, whether a gain or a loss is perceived, depends on what was expected. According to their concept of loss aversion, we feel twice as much pain from losses than we experience joy from equal gains.įor example, the pain of an unexpected loss of £5 is twice as strong as the joy of an unexpected gain of £5. This view receives implicit support from Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman and his late colleague, Amos Tversky. Having reckoned what to do in the worst possible circumstances, when better arise, as they may, life becomes child’s play. It is the only view of life in which you can never be disappointed. Pessimism is, in brief, playing the sure game. Despite the fact that expecting the worst can be extremely psychological painful, pessimists are, by their nature, fairly immune to disappointment.Īs the English writer Thomas Hardy noted: Studies consistently show that a large majority of the population ( about 80% according to most estimates) display an overly optimistic outlook.īut pessimism does have its advocates. Perhaps this is why unrealistic optimism – the tendency to overestimate the likelihood that good things will happen and underestimate the likelihood that bad things will happen – is one of the most pervasive human traits. In happiness terms, optimistic thinking seems to be a win-win strategy. The idea is not merely that optimistic thinking dispels present gloom, but that it also launches a self-fulfilling prophecy whereby simply believing in success delivers it. When you expect the best, you release a magnetic force in your mind which by a law of attraction tends to bring the best to you. Self-help books tend to promote a similar message, with Norman Vincent Peale’s bestseller The Power of Positive Thinking claiming: Life coaches and motivational speakers often treat positive thinking as the key to happiness.
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